India’s Wildlife at Climate Crossroads
Climate change is not just altering India’s landscapes; it is changing the conditions wildlife needs to survive, adapt and thrive.
Climate change is transforming natural habitats and creating growing challenges for India’s wildlife
India occupies only 2.4% of the world’s land area but supports nearly 7-8% of the world’s recorded species, making it one of the 17 recognized megadiverse countries. The country harbours more than 45,000 plant species and over 91,000 animal species distributed across diverse ecosystems including forests, grasslands, deserts, wetlands, coastal regions, and marine habitats. Four global biodiversity hotspots, namely the Himalayas, Western Ghats, Indo-Burma region of Northeast India, and the Nicobar Islands, are located within the country. These ecosystems provide essential ecological services such as carbon sequestration, watershed protection, soil conservation, pollination, and climate regulation.
However, climate change is increasingly disrupting these ecological systems. According to the Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES), India’s mean surface air temperature increased by approximately 0.7°C during 1901–2018. Climate model projections indicate that, under the intermediate-emissions scenario RCP4.5, the country’s average surface air temperature could rise by approximately 1.92°C during 2040–2069 relative to the 1976–2005 baseline. More recent assessments using CMIP6 climate models project additional warming of approximately 1.2–1.3°C by mid-century under SSP2-4.5, relative to 1995–2014. Such changes are expected to have profound consequences for wildlife populations and ecosystem functioning.
Climate Change Trends and Ecological Consequences
Climate change in India is manifested through increasing temperatures, changing monsoon patterns, prolonged droughts, intense precipitation events, floods, cyclones, and heatwaves. Observed trends in warm days and warm nights across India between 1951 and 2024 provide evidence of changing temperature extremes across the country (Fig 1). These climatic shifts directly affect wildlife by altering habitat quality, food availability, reproductive cycles, and species interactions.
One of the most concerning ecological consequences is the disruption of phenology, the timing of biological events such as flowering, breeding, migration, and fruiting. Research in the Western Ghats has also documented changes in the timing of flowering and fruiting in Terminalia paniculata, highlighting how climate-related changes can affect plant reproductive cycles and potentially influence the species that depend on them. Species that cannot adapt quickly enough to changing climatic conditions may experience disruptions in food webs and reproductive success, threatening their long-term survival.
Moreover, climate change often compounds existing pressures such as habitat fragmentation, pollution, overexploitation of natural resources and expanding human settlements, making wildlife conservation increasingly challenging.
Vulnerability of Forest Ecosystems
Forests constitute the primary habitat for much of India’s wildlife and play a vital role in climate regulation and carbon storage. Climate change is projected to significantly alter the structure and composition of forest ecosystems across the country. A modeling study conducted by researchers at the Indian Institute of Science estimated that approximately 45% of India’s forested grids may undergo significant vegetation shifts under projected climate change scenarios. The most vulnerable regions include the upper Himalayan forests, Central India, northern Western Ghats, and parts of the Eastern Ghats.
Mountain forests are particularly susceptible because temperature changes tend to be greater at higher elevations. Alterations in forest composition can have cascading effects on wildlife dependent on specific vegetation types, reducing habitat suitability and increasing extinction risk for specialist species.
At the same time, climate-induced increases in forest fires are expected to further degrade habitats. Prolonged dry periods and rising temperatures create favorable conditions for more frequent and intense fires, leading to loss of biodiversity and ecosystem productivity.
Forest fire in uttarkhashi
Photo Courtesy: PJeganathan/Wikimedia Commons
Impacts on Himalayan Biodiversity
The Himalayan region is among the most climate-sensitive ecosystems in the world. Studies supported under India’s National Mission for Sustaining the Himalayan Ecosystem (NMSHE) indicate that temperature increases in parts of the Himalayan region are occurring at nearly twice the rate observed in the adjoining plains. This finding is consistent with scientific evidence of elevation-dependent warming across the Himalayan region.
The consequences of this accelerated warming are already becoming evident. Alpine plant communities are shifting to higher elevations, leading to a gradual contraction of available habitat. Species adapted to cold environments may eventually have no suitable habitat left as they are pushed toward mountain summits.
Several iconic Himalayan species face increasing threats from climate change. The Snow Leopard (Panthera uncia), Red Panda (Ailurus fulgens), Hangul (Cervus hanglu hanglu), Himalayan musk deer (Moschus leucogaster), Himalayan tahr (Hemitragus jemlahicus), and various pheasant species are expected to experience habitat shifts and population declines. Treeline advancement into alpine meadows can alter forage availability and change predator-prey dynamics. Additionally, glacial retreat affects freshwater availability and riparian ecosystems that support diverse wildlife communities.
Red Panda (Ailurus fulgens) in Singalila National Park, West Bengal, India
Photo Courtesy: Dr Sanjay Kumar Shukla
Challenges in the Western Ghats
The Western Ghats represent one of the world’s most important biodiversity hotspots and contain exceptionally high levels of species. Studies in Western Ghats have highlighted the vulnerability of high-elevation endemic birds, particularly the Nilgiri Flycatcher (Eumyias albicaudatus) and the Black-and-orange Flycatcher (Ficedula nigrorufa), to climate change. Species distribution modelling predicts that rising temperatures and associated climatic changes could result in a loss of approximately 36–46% of suitable habitat for the Nilgiris Flycatcher and 20–31% for the Black-and-orange Flycatcher by 2050. These findings raise concerns about future habitat contraction and redistribution in the montane ecosystems of the Western Ghats (Sreekumar & Nameer, 2021). As the total area available to them diminishes, it increases their vulnerability to extinction.
Furthermore, altered rainfall patterns may affect amphibian diversity in the Western Ghats, which harbours one of the world’s richest assemblages of endemic amphibian species. Since many amphibians are highly sensitive to temperature and moisture changes, they are often regarded as important indicators of climate-induced ecological change.
Coastal and Marine Ecosystems Under Threat
India’s coastal ecosystems, particularly mangroves and estuarine habitats, face severe climate-related threats from sea-level rise, saltwater intrusion, and intensifying tropical cyclones.
The Sundarbans, the world’s largest mangrove forest and a critical habitat for the Bengal Tiger (Panthera tigris tigris), are highly vulnerable to these changes. Rising sea levels threaten to submerge low-lying islands and alter salinity regimes, affecting vegetation structure and habitat quality. Increased cyclone frequency and intensity can lead to extensive habitat destruction and displacement of wildlife populations.
Marine ecosystems are also experiencing stress from warming ocean temperatures and ocean acidification. Coral reef systems in the Andaman and Nicobar Islands and Lakshadweep are particularly susceptible to coral bleaching events, which can significantly reduce marine biodiversity.
Mangrove Forest, Sundarban, West Bengal, India
Photo Courtesy: Dr Sanjay Kumar Shukla
Conservation Strategies for Changing Climate
Conservation planning in the era of climate change must extend beyond traditional protected-area approaches. Climate-smart conservation requires integrating ecological, climatic, and socioeconomic considerations into management decisions.
Fig 2: Key Climate Adaptation Strategies for Wildlife Conservation
Conclusion
Climate change represents a transformative challenge for wildlife conservation in India. Rising temperatures, changing precipitation patterns, sea-level rise, forest fires, and extreme weather events are reshaping ecosystems across the country. The impacts are particularly severe in biodiversity hotspots such as the Himalayas, Western Ghats, and Sundarbans. Species range shifts, habitat degradation, and increasing ecological uncertainty threaten many of India’s iconic wildlife species.
Addressing these challenges requires a paradigm shift from static conservation approaches to dynamic, climate-resilient strategies. Integrating climate science into conservation planning, improving landscape connectivity, restoring ecosystems, and strengthening community participation will be essential for safeguarding India’s extraordinary biodiversity in the decades ahead. As climate change accelerates, proactive and adaptive conservation measures will determine whether India’s wildlife can persist and thrive in an increasingly uncertain future.
References
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